Investing Money » Forex

[BOC HIKES RATES BY 25 BP

admin — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:35:29 +0000

[BOC HIKES RATES BY 25 BPS] The BOC has raised its O/N Target Rate by 25 BPs to 1.00%. The Bank Rate has been increased to 1.25% and the operating band is 0.75% to 1.25%. A 25 BPs hike had been expected. The Bank says that any further rate hikes would need to be carefully considered due to the unusually uncertain outlook, which hints at an Oct pause. It expects the Canadian recovery to be slightly more gradual than projected. The slower recovery largely reflects weaker US activity. The next BOC Rate announcement will be on Oct 19

[USD/CAD] has spiked lowe

admin — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:35:28 +0000

[USD/CAD] has spiked lower as the Bank of Canada hikes rates 25 basis points to 1%, but further falls are likely to be limited as they say that any further hikes would need to be carefully considered due to the unusually uncertain outlook. Usd/Cad has pushed to a low so far at 1.0415 in response to the news, but support is seen into 1.0390/1.0400. The BoC will now be pretty data dependent as worries continue both domestically and also in the US. For now rates at 1% for the rest of 2010 look a safe bet

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

admin — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:35:21 +0000

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2852; (P) 1.2886 (R1) 1.2906; More.

EUR/USD’[s fall from 1.2921 extends further to as low as 1.2735 so far today. The break of 1.2776 minor support indicates that choppy recovery from 1.2587 is finished at 1.2916 already. With 1.2921 resistance intact, fall from 1.3330 is still expected to continue. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2587 support first. Break will target target 61.8% retracement of 1.1875 to 1.3330 at 1.2431 next. However, decisive break of 1.2921 will indicate that fall from 1.3330 is possibly completed and will bring stronger rally to retest this high instead.

In the bigger picture, note that EUR/USD is still limited below 55 weeks EMA (now at 1.3346) and thus, there is no indication of medium term bottoming. Whole decline from 1.6039 is possibly still in progress. Such decline is treated as correction to long term up trend and will target 1.1639 support after taking out 1.1875 low. On the upside, though, above 1.3330 will turn focus back to 55 weeks EMA and sustained trading above there will pave the wave to further rise to upper trend line resistance (1.6039, 1.5143, now at 1.4600).

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[NORWAY DATA FLASH]

admin — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 14:35:20 +0000

[NORWAY DATA FLASH] Indicator For Actual Consensus Previous NOR Manuf Prod NSA Y/Y Jul-10 6.6% N/A 7.2% NOR Manuf Prod SA M/M Jul-10 0.1% -0.5% 3.3% 07:58 GMT – With no concrete decisions on new budget rules after yest's Ecofin summit and as the WSJ sparks more worries about the lack of EU stress test transparency, the [EMU PERIPHERY] is under fire again. 10Y yld gaps vs Bunds continue to widen with Portugal out 8bp to 342bp, Greece 3bp wider at 935bp after the PM reshuffled his cabinet to better deal with the debt crisis and ahead of the Nov 7 municipal elections. Turning to Italy, PM Berlusconi is seeking to remove rival Fini as Parl speaker, which could prompt an early election. The BTP/Bund gap is out 6bp to 149bp, while Spanish/Irish gaps follow, expanding 5bp to 179/351bp resp. Note, the latter has asked the EC to extend the Anglo deposit guarantee, while Irish Nationwide listed Eur 4bn notes under the govt's ELG scheme. The bank faces around Eur 4bn in redemptions this month, part of some Eur 25bn in total for all Irish lenders in Sep alone

[IBERIAN ASSAULT NEXT?] J

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:32:53 +0000

[IBERIAN ASSAULT NEXT?] Just when some thought the EMU periphery crisis was stabilising, albeit aided by severe austerity & ongoing ECB support, old wounds have resurfaced. As holiday-makers return from Greece noting empty shops, French unions have taken to the Parisian streets on pension reforms & amid talk that Belgium may split itself into two

[MANPOWER US HIRING POLL]

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:32:44 +0000

[MANPOWER US HIRING POLL] Of 18,000 employers surveyed, the vast majority at 71% expect no change in Oct-Dec hiring plans. Another 15% plan to expand staff, while 11% look to cut payrolls and 3% as undecided. That resulted in a Net Employment Outlook index of +4% vs +10 last time. After seasonal adjustments, the Net Employment Outlook was +5%, down from +4 in Q3 but up from -2 from a year ago. The survey also showed that 11 out of 13 industries have a positive Outlook for Q4 this year, with sentiment best in mining and wholesale/retail trade. The Q4 outlook is negative in govt and construction. By major region, employment prospects were strongest in the Northeast and South and weakest in the West

[CONFLICTING SIGNS] on th

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:31:33 +0000

[CONFLICTING SIGNS] on the UK High St are alive & kicking over the late summer months it appears. The good or less bad news came o/n, as the BRC said like-for-like sales rose 1% y/y in Aug, though much of the improvement came from discounting/base effects. But leading department store, Debenhams (according to Reuters), are slashing prices by up to 25% at a time of jittery consumer sentiment and a nervous outlook for as the key season for big-ticket items for stores nears. Debenhams has perhaps started a price war as it said it was lowering prices on tens of thousands of goods with the timing designed to attract shoppers rather than wait for the end of the season to wind down stock through discounting. Whether others will follow so soon is hard to say, but with the Jan VAT hike and public spending cuts/job losses to be unveiled in late autumn, Debenhams has thrown down the gauntlet to its rivals

FT highlights that the [E

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:31:16 +0000

FT highlights that the [EUROZONE] debt crisis is about to enter a critical phase as govts attempt to raise some Eur 80bn in September, double of August's new bond issuance of Eur 43bln. The article says that peripheral Europe is most in danger of being shunned by investors as worries persist over the health of their economies, with Spain expected to attempt to borrow some Eur 7bn in Sept compared with Eur 3.5bn in Aug

Pressure is piled onto th

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 21:31:07 +0000

Pressure is piled onto the [EMU PERIPHERY] as the BoJ notes that Greece was in worse shape than Russia & Argentina at debt crisis times

[PRE RBA] There is a zero

admin — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 03:15:10 +0000

[PRE RBA] There is a zero chance RBA will hike rates tdy. However volatile trade could ensue on the tone of the 4.30GMT statement, given that the curve remains mildly negative, with less than one hike now priced over the next 12mths. An increasingly uncertain global outlook, especially for the US and Europe, combined with Q2's subdued inflation backdrop, will have provided RBA enough leeway to leave rates on hold. However with Q2's strong GDP figures in hand, booming terms of trade, firms robust CAPEX plans and ongoing labour mkt strength; the statement could well be peppered with a hawkish bias, in which prospects for demand and inflation will need to be watched closely. In this case, expect ylds and the Aussie to be pressured higher